Last updated: 26 September 2026
Some of what Belarus Brief counts changes every month. This page keeps those series in one place, so that a reading can be followed over time and not only inside the brief where it first appeared.
Each indicator has a short definition, its latest reading, the date of the next update and the limits we know about. When a new reading changes our view, the brief that relies on it gets a correction note. We add an indicator only when it has at least three comparable months behind it.
Narrative Divergence Index (NDI)
What it measures. How differently media environments tell the same event. Each month ten significant events are selected. For each event a language model reading the FORESIGHT corpus sets an axis between two opposite readings, and seven environments receive a position on it from 0 to 10: Belarusian state media, Belarusian independent media, Russian state media, and media in Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. An event’s NDI is the distance between its two most distant environments.
How to read it. The axis and its direction change from event to event, so positions cannot be compared across events. Distances can. This page reports three monthly averages: the NDI across all events, the gap between Belarusian state and independent media, and the gap between Belarusian and Russian state media.
Latest reading: August 2026. Average NDI 6.4. Belarusian state vs independent media 5.4 points. Belarusian vs Russian state media 2.1 points, with 5 of 7 comparable events within one point.
Readings so far. June: 6.8 / 6.0 / 1.6. July: 7.0 / 6.1 / 1.4. August: 6.4 / 5.4 / 2.1.
Next update. The September reading, by 20 October 2026.
Known limits. One model run per month, with stability not yet measured by repeat runs. Seven to nine events per month where both state segments take a position, too few to call a month-to-month trend. Nine of the first 30 events carry a low-data flag for at least one environment. “State media” includes state and pro-regime outlets as classified in the monitoring.
Briefs that use it. Where Minsk Breaks From Moscow (26 September 2026).
Produced by FactCheck.LT, NARINT method, FORESIGHT corpus.